Saturday, March 12, 2011

Could it happen here? Not exactly

The deadly earthquake centered off the coast of Japan brought life in Tokyo to a sudden standstill Friday afternoon by halting rail cars, blacking out buildings and silencing cell phones as a tsunami killed hundreds to the north.

If a similar disaster occurred in Los Angeles, how would it shake out?

Disaster experts and emergency-response agencies said the impact of a huge quake could be roughly the same here, but they sought to reassure residents that a coordinated response would be prepared to get L.A. back on track - and on the freeway - as quickly as possible.

"We're going to see a lot of similarities if we have a major earthquake," Los Angeles Fire Department Capt. Jaime Moore said. "But we're prepared to mitigate those emergencies and the events that would (follow)."

Seismologists said Friday an earthquake like the magnitude-8.9 temblor in Japan is unlikely to strike Southern or Central California because of geological differences.

The quake about 100 miles east of the coast of Sendai unleashed a force 3,000 times that of the magnitude-6.7 Northridge Earthquake in 1994, according to scientists.

But the San Andreas Fault - believed to be the source of L.A.'s next Big One - is estimated to be capable of up to a magnitude-8.0 "shallow crustal earthquake," the scientists said.

They said it wouldn't trigger a tsunami because the San Andreas is inland.

The effects of an 8.0 quake might be unimaginable

to most Angelenos. But the people who run emergency agencies here have to try to imagine what would happen and figure out how to react.

The key is to have a plan that would "encourage resiliency," letting people get on with their lives as soon as possible, said David Ballard, a sociology professor at California State University, Northridge, who studies disaster response.

"The Northridge Earthquake is a prime example," Ballard said. "We lost some of the highway infrastructure in Los Angeles, but very quickly the community was able to get around those problem areas."

Moore said Los Angeles is "absolutely" better prepared than it was in '94, and residents would notice a more integrated response by fire, police, harbor, airport and other government agencies following the next big quake.

He said in the crucial first step, firefighters would have the responsibility for fanning out by pre-planned routes, checking for damage to transportation hubs, gathering spots and utilities.

Metro Rail spokesman Marc Littman said subway and above-ground train riders should expect service interruption after a major earthquake, but safety is the first concern, and operators have backup plans.

"Typically, you're probably safer underground than above ground," Littman said. "A subway is like a straw in a bowl of Jell-O - you're moving with the earth."

Ballard said one difference between the modern cities of Tokyo and Los Angeles is that the Japanese capital is more crowded and thus more susceptible to massive casualties.

"But the building codes are very similar, infrastructure is very similar, and I would assume the emergency response is going to be very similar," Ballard said.

The CSUN professor said he was impressed by reports of Tokyo residents' orderly reaction to the quake.

"I think we (in Los Angeles) would have people panic a little more. We might see people use it as an excuse for civil unrest," Ballard said. "We'd probably need more of a law-enforcement response than they do in Japan."

An 8.0 quake could strain Angelenos' neighborliness, Ballard said.

"In Los Angeles, we live across fences," he said. "But if the fences are knocked down by an earthquake, we will help our neighbors - for a while."

Friday's quake struck about 100 miles east of the coast of Honshu - Japan's largest island - sending 30-foot waves roiling over land, killing perhaps 1,000 people and pushing a damaging surge along the U.S. West Coast.

The fifth-largest quake in recorded history, it was caused by undersea oceanic plates shoving under Japan's continental shelf in a process called subduction, said Thomas Heaton, professor of engineering seismology at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

A similar subduction zone along California's coast is believed to have been inactive for 5 million years, Heaton said.

"This subduction earthquake in Japan is a very different kind of phenomenon," Heaton said. "We don't believe we could have an 8.9 here."

Heaton quipped: "But to be honest, none of us have really been down there (undersea) to check it out."

Scientists said recent tsunamis - including those following the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2010 Chile earthquakes - were the result of undersea subduction activity.

A nearly 9.0 magnitude quake could not be generated along the San Andreas Fault because there just isn't enough surface area to move around, said Lucy Jones, a seismologist with the U.S. Geographical Survey.

The Sendai subduction zone consisted of a fault 250 miles long by 100 miles wide that moved 50 to 60 feet. In contrast, the 200-mile-long portion of the San Andreas Fault that runs through the Los Angeles area is only about 10 feet wide and moves an average of 15 feet, Jones said.

The Northridge Fault is 10miles by 10 miles and moves about three feet.

Kristanna Loken Tricia Vessey Joss Stone Maria Sharapova Josie Maran

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